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shouldnt this margin be based off the by election result like aston?
or is it already?
Redistributions have benefited Labor here, Labor hold.
@spacefish likely hold yes. but i think conroy will give her a good run.
Depends John,
If the Liberal civil war is still raging on then it might really hurt the Liberals
@spacefish state and federal issues are totally different.
Labor retain, probably a similar margin to the by-election. Even though Pesutto is polling well in Victoria, Dutton isn’t. There’s a chance Dutton could poll worse than Scomo in Victoria since he is further to the right.
I think statewide in Victoria both major parties could potentially have decreased vote shares. This would help Labor.
What it could potentially look like (NOT A PREDICTION):
Primaries:
* Labor: 31.0% (–1.9%)
* Coalition: 30.5% (–2.6%)
* Greens: 15.0% (+1.3%)
TPP:
* Labor: 56.5% (+1.7%)
* Coalition: 43.5% (–1.7%)
In that scenario the Greens did well in seats like Wills while the Liberals did worse than last time in the Red Wall as a correction of the anti-lockdown swing. The teals would’ve also increased their margins in Goldstein and Kooyong.
@nether Scomo was the bottom of the barrel. If you look at the state breakdowns the liberals have improved their position by about 3% according to the bar setting Newspoll. Which means they should hold Deakin, Menzies and Casey and likely recover Aston according to internal polling. They are also competitive in about 5 seats which I assume would include McEwen and Chisholm. Resolve is even more generous giving them about a 5% increase. We are due for the next quarterly Newspoll shortly so we will see how much better they are off. This will likely be the last breakdown before the election.
@Darth Vader that depends on when the election is. If it’s in summer then yes, last Newspoll breakdown.
@NP all indications are it will be a march election. Albo simply wont survive the budget and the 2035 emmissions targets release
It should be noted the 6.8% is based on the 2022 not the 2024 by election result therefore that why I’m putting Dunkley on my list. Belyea will not be able replicate Peta Murphy’s margin and will not be granted to hold onto her personal/sy,pathy vote. The by election result was only 2.7% and if you include the 0.5% increase from the redistribution that means the margin is only about 3.2% at most. So Dunkley is marginal and it could flip this year.
i think this is a real potential gain and has gone under the radar
Look at the polling both map.. a sea of red also I think the boundary changed has helped Labor as well.
This is a Labor inclined marginal
The polling booth map does not take into account the fact that popular member has past away and the fact the by election win can be attributed to people voting labor out of sympathy for the member who died and that factor will now be removed and Belyea will need to stand on her own now. With the polling in victoria going the way towards the coalition Conroy having name recognition for being the mayor of Frankston and having contested the by election. Conroy can easily win.
im giving Nathna a good chance here id say hes well within range given his performance in the by election. this is classic mortgage belt area with a high anglo/european population
Libs have no chance here. The byelection was their chance if they were going to win it, it’s not likely to swing even further. Plus the Libs lost their strongest part around Mount Eliza.
@adam they were never gonna win the by election there was too much sympathy for the popular deceased member now they have to win withot that. thats where ther chace is labor will lose some or all of peta mrhys persoanl vote now and there wont be people vting labor out of sympathy for peta murphy.
Was a pretty high profile by-election, unique conditions with a sitting member dying and Labor’s position has slid a fair way since then, wouldn’t rule out a Liberal win
@maxim agreed i think the liberals might be half a chance in bruce too
The swing will likely be bigger in Bruce (than in Dunkley on by election margin), then bigger again in Holt, but can they actually win one of them? That’s the question
Maxim
I think Labor will retain all 3 seats.
Holt and Bruce are our of range for the libs
If there was a seat in Melbourne where One Nation could do well, this is it. And those votes would probably come Labor. The Libs might run this one close but just can’t see them bridging the gap. Where Labor could come unstuck is if the swing is on in Victoria – they have buiilt a margin from a fairly low primary – 40% or so. If that goes down by 5 or 6% then they are in big trouble. They also don’t have the Greens to save them as the Greens have polled poorly <10%.
I think labor will win Holt but Dunkley is rate as agood chance alongside Chisholm which i think may just hold for labor but on an incredibly low margin. Bruce is a wildcard. I do however think libs win win back Aston and win Mcewen, and shouldn’t lose any seats to labor in Vic or anywhere else in the country for that matter.